Can the US decarbonise without policy and political support?
Deep decarbonisation would need significant policy and political support. It would be a good case study to see how much the US drifts without that support.
In recent history, several countries have elected governments that actively rolled back climate policies, withdrew from international agreements, or prioritized fossil fuel expansion.
The United States is the only country to have fully followed through with a formal withdrawal from the Paris Agreement. While other leaders, such as Brazil’s former President Jair Bolsonaro, previously threatened to withdraw, they ultimately reversed course. Other countries include Australia under former Prime Minister Tony Abbott and the current government in New Zealand.
A very cold start to 2025 and the growing power demands of data centres increased GHG emissions in 2025
But 2026 emissions are projected to decline by 107 million metric tonnes CO₂ due to a continued decline in coal use. In 2025, emissions increased by 84 million metric tonnes CO2 because of increased coal and petroleum use.
Solar generation will lead total electricity generation growth, while coal will see continued decline despite policy push towards fossil fuels in the United States
▶️ Total electricity generation by the U.S. electric power sector in 2025 increased by 2.5% and is expected to rise by 1% this year and 3% in 2027, reflecting rising electricity use.
▶️ Solar generation will lead total generation growth in 2026 and 2027. It is anticipated that solar generation will increase by more than 20% each year of the forecast, after increasing by 33% in 2025.
▶️ Wind generation rises by 6% (28 BkWh) annually in both 2026 and 2027., even after accounting for the pause on off-shore wind projects.
▶️ Nuclear power will generate 2% (15 BkWh) more electricity in 2026, with no change expected in nuclear generation in 2027.
▶️ Natural gas generation remains unchanged.
▶️ Coal generation to decline by 9% in 2026 and stay relatively flat in 2027. Coal generating capacity to decline by almost 8% (13 gigawatts) over the next two years due to retirements of plants.